Linking detection probabilities to emissions reductions. Prediction of the mitigation potential of LDAR technologies requires simulating the interplay between at least two curves: (i) leak size distribution and (ii) the detection probability of a given LDAR technology. Typically, the curve of present leaks (red) is skewed such that there are a few large sources and many smaller leaks. High leak rate sources are important as they emit more methane per time interval. Hypothetical detection probability curves of two technologies are shown. LDAR Tech A (yellow) is a more sensitive, but more expensive technology that can detect a greater proportion of leaks. LDAR Tech B (blue) is a less expensive but less sensitive technology that could also be applied, likely more frequently, detecting only the upper tail of the curve. Both technologies could reduce the same volume of methane. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1525/elementa.379.f1