Exceedance probability of projected seasonal runoff for the period 2050–2098. Dashed red line and bold dashed red line indicate PEWR and EEWE, respectively. Dashed black line represents mean annual runoff during the observed period (1963–2005): (a) autumn, (b) winter, (c) spring and (d) summer. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1525/elementa.340.f6