Exceedance probability of projected annual runoff. Dashed red line and bold dashed red line indicate theoretical OBS PEWR and theoretical OBS EEWE, respectively, calculated based on observed data (1963–2015). Dashed black line represents mean annual runoff during the observed period (1963–2015), and each grey line is one GCM in the ensemble. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1525/elementa.340.f5