Example of well declining production curve in our scenarios – Unterkarbon (Germany), P50. The declining curve, extrapolated from the Eagle Ford and Barnett shale plays in the US and tailored to the EUR and IP of our case study reservoirs, follow an exponential trend in the first year, and a logarithmic trend in the following 4 years (see equations in the figure). From the 5^th year onwards, we assume that production remains constant. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1525/elementa.359.f3