Projected number of months the Northern Sea Route would be opened to navigation according to RCP 4.5.
This projection is based on the future emission scenario representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5. Three ice probability thresholds are presented: 90, 70 and 50% chance that the Northern Sea Route (NSR) is covered by < 15% ice concentration (upper panels), by sea ice < 15 cm thick (middle panels), and by combination (< 15% ice concentration or < 15 cm ice thickness; lower panels).