Percent of monthly SST anomalies in each decade that exceed the monthly maximum during 1976–2005. Results are shown for CMIP5 models in the LMEs in the Arctic and around Europe. The ensemble median is red and Hadley SST observations are black. The outer envelope (light gray) shows the ensemble max/min range. The 2nd envelope (medium gray) shows the 10th–90th percentile range of the ensemble and the inner envelope (dark gray) indicates the inter-quartile range (25th–75th percentile). The decades were sampled every five years in overlapping 10-year periods for smoothness. By mid-century most regions exceed the maximum during the historical period (1976–2005) more than 80% of the time. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1525/elementa.191.f14