Percent of years with annual SST anomalies exceeding the maximum during the historical period (1976–2005). Shown are three different 30-year periods: a) 2010–2039, b) 2040–2069, c) 2070–2099. Percentages are computed for each CMIP5 model and then averaged together. Most of the northern oceans exceed the warmest historical year in the last three decades of the 21st century. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1525/elementa.191.f12