Probability distributions of CMIP5 monthly SST anomalies averaged over the LMEs around North America. The results are shown for the historical period (1976–2005, black lines) and future period (2070–2099, red lines), where the SSTs have been linearly detrended within each period. The red dashed line shows the future distribution of anomalies without the mean change to make it easier to compare the shapes of the future and historical distributions. Other than the change in the mean, the changes in the distributions are very small for most regions. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1525/elementa.191.f10