Observed and simulated trends in the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) and in central-southern Chile (30–48°S) precipitation (P_CL). Observations-based (a, d) and simulated (b, e) seasonal mean trends in the SAM (top) and in P_CL (bottom) between 1960 and 2016. Panels (c) and (f) show the SAM and P_CL trend simulated for the period 2016–2099. Model results are based on full-forced historical and RCP8.5 simulations from 33 CMIP5 GCMs (error bars indicate multi-model mean and standard deviation). Red bars in bottom panels indicate the SAM-congruent changes in P_CL. Orange bars in panel (d) indicate the PDO-congruent trend based on observations. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1525/elementa.328.f10