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Table 1

CMIP5 SST trends (°C decade–1) and inter-annual standard deviations (°C) with (w) and without (w/o) the trends for the historical (1976–2005, “20th C”) and future (2070–2099, “21st C”) periods in the 18 LME regions examined in this study. The NOAA-designated LME region numbers are also shown in the first column. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1525/elementa.191.t1

Large Marine EcosystemSST Trend: (°C Decade-1)Std Dev (σ) w/TrendStd Dev (σ) w/o Trend

20th C21st C20th C21st C20th C21st C

(1) E. Bering Sea 0.25 0.54 0.68 0.82 0.59 0.61 
(2) Gulf of AK 0.17 0.41 0.70 0.77 0.64 0.64 
(3) CA Current 0.14 0.36 0.53 0.62 0.49 0.51 
(5) Gulf of Mexico 0.18 0.37 0.47 0.54 0.43 0.41 
(6) SE US Shelf 0.18 0.35 0.46 0.53 0.41 0.42 
(7) NE US Shelf 0.22 0.42 0.71 0.76 0.64 0.63 
(8) Scotian Shelf 0.26 0.54 0.77 0.87 0.69 0.70 
(9) Newfoundland-Labrador Shelf 0.19 0.49 0.59 0.74 0.53 0.57 
(10) Hawaii 0.16 0.39 0.40 0.52 0.34 0.36 
(18) West Greenland 0.08 0.27 0.42 0.53 0.38 0.41 
(19) Greenland Sea 0.09 0.33 0.57 0.66 0.52 0.47 
(20) Barents Sea 0.14 0.50 0.56 0.79 0.49 0.56 
(21) Norwegian Sea 0.19 0.36 0.61 0.75 0.50 0.58 
(22) North Sea 0.22 0.31 0.66 0.68 0.59 0.57 
(24) Celtic Biscay Shelf 0.19 0.26 0.50 0.62 0.43 0.53 
(26) Mediterranean 0.23 0.45 0.48 0.59 0.41 0.42 
(59) Iceland Shelf/Sea 0.09 0.32 0.65 0.78 0.57 0.62 
(64) Central Arctic 0.14 0.32 0.06 0.56 0.05 0.31 
Large Marine EcosystemSST Trend: (°C Decade-1)Std Dev (σ) w/TrendStd Dev (σ) w/o Trend

20th C21st C20th C21st C20th C21st C

(1) E. Bering Sea 0.25 0.54 0.68 0.82 0.59 0.61 
(2) Gulf of AK 0.17 0.41 0.70 0.77 0.64 0.64 
(3) CA Current 0.14 0.36 0.53 0.62 0.49 0.51 
(5) Gulf of Mexico 0.18 0.37 0.47 0.54 0.43 0.41 
(6) SE US Shelf 0.18 0.35 0.46 0.53 0.41 0.42 
(7) NE US Shelf 0.22 0.42 0.71 0.76 0.64 0.63 
(8) Scotian Shelf 0.26 0.54 0.77 0.87 0.69 0.70 
(9) Newfoundland-Labrador Shelf 0.19 0.49 0.59 0.74 0.53 0.57 
(10) Hawaii 0.16 0.39 0.40 0.52 0.34 0.36 
(18) West Greenland 0.08 0.27 0.42 0.53 0.38 0.41 
(19) Greenland Sea 0.09 0.33 0.57 0.66 0.52 0.47 
(20) Barents Sea 0.14 0.50 0.56 0.79 0.49 0.56 
(21) Norwegian Sea 0.19 0.36 0.61 0.75 0.50 0.58 
(22) North Sea 0.22 0.31 0.66 0.68 0.59 0.57 
(24) Celtic Biscay Shelf 0.19 0.26 0.50 0.62 0.43 0.53 
(26) Mediterranean 0.23 0.45 0.48 0.59 0.41 0.42 
(59) Iceland Shelf/Sea 0.09 0.32 0.65 0.78 0.57 0.62 
(64) Central Arctic 0.14 0.32 0.06 0.56 0.05 0.31 
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