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Table 2.

Summary of climatic impacts in the two case study catchments. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1525/elementa.2020.00175.t2

Case Study CatchmentClimate Scenarios
ModerateExtreme
Karamu 0.75ºC warmer, mostly in summer/autumn 2.5°C warmer, mostly in autumn 
15 additional “hot days” per year 60 additional “hot days” per year 
5 fewer “cold nights” per year (i.e., frosts) 10 fewer “cold nights” per year (i.e., frosts) 
5% less rainfall annually, mostly in spring 10% less rainfall annually, mostly in spring 
5% more extreme rainfall 10% more extreme rainfall 
120 mm increase in PED deficit (drought proneness) 160 mm increase in PED deficit (drought proneness) 
+ increase in extreme winds and storms is uncertain ++ increase in extreme winds and storms is uncertain 
Wairoa 0.75°C warmer, mostly in summer/autumn 2.75°C warmer, mostly in autumn 
30 additional “hot days” per year 60 additional “hot days” per year 
5 fewer “cold nights” per year (i.e., frosts) 5 fewer “cold nights” per year (i.e., frosts) 
5% less rainfall annually, mostly in spring 5% less rainfall annually, mostly in spring 
5% more extreme rainfall 15% more extreme rainfall 
100 mm increase in PED deficit (drought proneness) 140 mm increase in PED deficit (drought proneness) 
+ increase in extreme winds and storms is uncertain ++ increase in extreme winds and storms is uncertain 
Case Study CatchmentClimate Scenarios
ModerateExtreme
Karamu 0.75ºC warmer, mostly in summer/autumn 2.5°C warmer, mostly in autumn 
15 additional “hot days” per year 60 additional “hot days” per year 
5 fewer “cold nights” per year (i.e., frosts) 10 fewer “cold nights” per year (i.e., frosts) 
5% less rainfall annually, mostly in spring 10% less rainfall annually, mostly in spring 
5% more extreme rainfall 10% more extreme rainfall 
120 mm increase in PED deficit (drought proneness) 160 mm increase in PED deficit (drought proneness) 
+ increase in extreme winds and storms is uncertain ++ increase in extreme winds and storms is uncertain 
Wairoa 0.75°C warmer, mostly in summer/autumn 2.75°C warmer, mostly in autumn 
30 additional “hot days” per year 60 additional “hot days” per year 
5 fewer “cold nights” per year (i.e., frosts) 5 fewer “cold nights” per year (i.e., frosts) 
5% less rainfall annually, mostly in spring 5% less rainfall annually, mostly in spring 
5% more extreme rainfall 15% more extreme rainfall 
100 mm increase in PED deficit (drought proneness) 140 mm increase in PED deficit (drought proneness) 
+ increase in extreme winds and storms is uncertain ++ increase in extreme winds and storms is uncertain 

Hot days: the number of days per year with maximum temperature >25ºC. Cold nights/frosts: the number of nights per year with minimum temperature <0ºC. Extreme rainfall: 1% top highest rainfall events. Drought proneness (PED = potential evapotranspiration deficit): the cumulative difference between potential evapotranspiration and rainfall from July 1 of a calendar year to June 30 of the next year, for days of soil moisture under half of available water capacity (AWC), using an AWC of 150 mm for silty-loamy soils. +, ++: (very) positive change.

Adapted from downscaled projections (National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research, 2017).

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