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Table 2. Overall Participation (LA) and Personality Parameter Estimates from the Random-Intercept Cross-Lagged Panel Model (RI-CLPM)
  Openness Conscientiousness Extraversion Agreeableness Neuroticism 
Number of observations used N = 43543  N = 43619  N = 43592  N = 43639  N = 43651  
Model parameters β SE p β SE p β SE p β SE p β SE p 
Auto-regressive terms                
 a1 (LA) 0.193 0.012 0.000*** 0.193 0.012 0.000*** 0.194 0.012 0.000*** 0.192 0.012 0.000*** 0.193 0.012 0.000*** 
 a2 (P) 0.122 0.011 0.000*** 0.134 0.012 0.000*** 0.114 0.011 0.000*** 0.109 0.011 0.000*** 0.122 0.011 0.000*** 
Cross-lagged terms                
 c1 (LA → P) 0.005 0.010 0.575 0.004 0.010 0.703 0.024 0.009 0.010* -0.008 0.010 0.431 -0.005 0.010 0.629 
 c2 (P → LA) 0.004 0.008 0.604 0.000 0.008 0.970 0.014 0.008 0.097 0.007 0.007 0.338 -0.006 0.008 0.411 
Covariances                
  Random intercepts ψ(Xi,Yi) 0.251 0.006 0.000*** -0.032 0.006 0.000*** 0.132 0.006 0.000*** 0.008 0.006 0.168 -0.120 0.006 0.000*** 
 Corr. change ψ(lv1, lu10.054 0.006 0.000*** -0.011 0.006 0.061 0.054 0.006 0.000*** -0.008 0.006 0.171 -0.039 0.006 0.000*** 
 Corr. change ψ(lv2, lu20.032 0.005 0.000*** 0.009 0.005 0.099 0.029 0.005 0.000*** 0.007 0.005 0.189 -0.001 0.005 0.881 
 Corr. change ψ(lv3, lu30.029 0.005 0.000*** -0.008 0.006 0.130 0.024 0.005 0.000*** -0.003 0.006 0.556 -0.007 0.005 0.167 
 Corr. change ψ(lv4, lu40.038 0.005 0.000*** 0.013 0.005 0.008 0.020 0.005 0.000*** 0.007 0.005 0.190 -0.018 0.005 0.000*** 
Granger-Sims Causality Tests                           
Step 1: Derive Fit of Full Model                
 χ² (df) 52.323 (11)  71.139 (11)  71.086 (11)  43.128 (11)  41.005 (11)  
 CFI / TLI 0.999 0.998  0.999 0.996  0.999 0.997  0.999 0.998  0.999 0.998  
 RMSEA / SRMR 0.009 0.008  0.011 0.010  0.011 0.009  0.008 0.007  0.008 0.006  
 AIC / BIC 403018 403304  413371 413657  404935 405222  414354 414640  409439 409725  
Step 2: Constrain LA → P (c1)                
 χ² (df) 52.638 (12)  71.285 (12)  77.712 (12)  43.748 (12)  41.239 (12)  
 CFI / TLI 0.999 0.998  0.999 0.997  0.999 0.997  0.999 0.998  0.999 0.998  
 RMSEA / SRMR 0.009 0.008  0.011 0.010  0.011 0.009  0.008 0.007  0.008 0.006  
 AIC / BIC 403016 403294  413368 413646  404941 405218  414353 414631  409437 409715  
 χ² Difference Test (diffdf) p 0.314 (1) 0.575 0.146 (1) 0.703 6.626 (1) 0.010* 0.620 (1) 0.431 0.233 (1) 0.629 
Step 3: Constrain P → LA (c2)                
 χ² (df) 52.592 (12)  71.141 (12)  73.839 (12)  44.048 (12)  41.681 (12)  
 CFI / TLI 0.999 0.998  0.999 0.997  0.999 0.997  0.999 0.998  0.999 0.998  
 RMSEA / SRMR 0.009 0.008  0.011 0.010  0.011 0.009  0.008 0.007  0.008 0.006  
 AIC / BIC 403016 403294  413368 413646  404937 405215  414353 414631  409437 409715  
 χ² Difference Test (diffdf) p 0.269 (1) 0.604 0.001 (1) 0.970 2.753 (1) 0.097 0.921 (1) 0.337 0.676 (1) 0.411 
Step 4: Constrain all cross-lagged terms                
 χ² (df) 52.721 (13)  71.353 (13)  77.973 (13)  46.102 (13)  41.691 (13)  
 CFI / TLI 0.999 0.998  0.999 0.997  0.999 0.997  0.999 0.998  0.999 0.998  
 RMSEA / SRMR 0.008 0.008  0.011 0.010  0.011 0.009  0.008 0.007  0.008 0.006  
 AIC / BIC 403014 403283  413366 413635  404939 405208  414353 414622  409435 409704  
 χ² Difference Test (diffdf) p 0.398 (2) 0.820 0.214 (2) 0.899 6.887 (2) 0.032* 2.974 (2) 0.226 0.452 (2) 0.501 
  Openness Conscientiousness Extraversion Agreeableness Neuroticism 
Number of observations used N = 43543  N = 43619  N = 43592  N = 43639  N = 43651  
Model parameters β SE p β SE p β SE p β SE p β SE p 
Auto-regressive terms                
 a1 (LA) 0.193 0.012 0.000*** 0.193 0.012 0.000*** 0.194 0.012 0.000*** 0.192 0.012 0.000*** 0.193 0.012 0.000*** 
 a2 (P) 0.122 0.011 0.000*** 0.134 0.012 0.000*** 0.114 0.011 0.000*** 0.109 0.011 0.000*** 0.122 0.011 0.000*** 
Cross-lagged terms                
 c1 (LA → P) 0.005 0.010 0.575 0.004 0.010 0.703 0.024 0.009 0.010* -0.008 0.010 0.431 -0.005 0.010 0.629 
 c2 (P → LA) 0.004 0.008 0.604 0.000 0.008 0.970 0.014 0.008 0.097 0.007 0.007 0.338 -0.006 0.008 0.411 
Covariances                
  Random intercepts ψ(Xi,Yi) 0.251 0.006 0.000*** -0.032 0.006 0.000*** 0.132 0.006 0.000*** 0.008 0.006 0.168 -0.120 0.006 0.000*** 
 Corr. change ψ(lv1, lu10.054 0.006 0.000*** -0.011 0.006 0.061 0.054 0.006 0.000*** -0.008 0.006 0.171 -0.039 0.006 0.000*** 
 Corr. change ψ(lv2, lu20.032 0.005 0.000*** 0.009 0.005 0.099 0.029 0.005 0.000*** 0.007 0.005 0.189 -0.001 0.005 0.881 
 Corr. change ψ(lv3, lu30.029 0.005 0.000*** -0.008 0.006 0.130 0.024 0.005 0.000*** -0.003 0.006 0.556 -0.007 0.005 0.167 
 Corr. change ψ(lv4, lu40.038 0.005 0.000*** 0.013 0.005 0.008 0.020 0.005 0.000*** 0.007 0.005 0.190 -0.018 0.005 0.000*** 
Granger-Sims Causality Tests                           
Step 1: Derive Fit of Full Model                
 χ² (df) 52.323 (11)  71.139 (11)  71.086 (11)  43.128 (11)  41.005 (11)  
 CFI / TLI 0.999 0.998  0.999 0.996  0.999 0.997  0.999 0.998  0.999 0.998  
 RMSEA / SRMR 0.009 0.008  0.011 0.010  0.011 0.009  0.008 0.007  0.008 0.006  
 AIC / BIC 403018 403304  413371 413657  404935 405222  414354 414640  409439 409725  
Step 2: Constrain LA → P (c1)                
 χ² (df) 52.638 (12)  71.285 (12)  77.712 (12)  43.748 (12)  41.239 (12)  
 CFI / TLI 0.999 0.998  0.999 0.997  0.999 0.997  0.999 0.998  0.999 0.998  
 RMSEA / SRMR 0.009 0.008  0.011 0.010  0.011 0.009  0.008 0.007  0.008 0.006  
 AIC / BIC 403016 403294  413368 413646  404941 405218  414353 414631  409437 409715  
 χ² Difference Test (diffdf) p 0.314 (1) 0.575 0.146 (1) 0.703 6.626 (1) 0.010* 0.620 (1) 0.431 0.233 (1) 0.629 
Step 3: Constrain P → LA (c2)                
 χ² (df) 52.592 (12)  71.141 (12)  73.839 (12)  44.048 (12)  41.681 (12)  
 CFI / TLI 0.999 0.998  0.999 0.997  0.999 0.997  0.999 0.998  0.999 0.998  
 RMSEA / SRMR 0.009 0.008  0.011 0.010  0.011 0.009  0.008 0.007  0.008 0.006  
 AIC / BIC 403016 403294  413368 413646  404937 405215  414353 414631  409437 409715  
 χ² Difference Test (diffdf) p 0.269 (1) 0.604 0.001 (1) 0.970 2.753 (1) 0.097 0.921 (1) 0.337 0.676 (1) 0.411 
Step 4: Constrain all cross-lagged terms                
 χ² (df) 52.721 (13)  71.353 (13)  77.973 (13)  46.102 (13)  41.691 (13)  
 CFI / TLI 0.999 0.998  0.999 0.997  0.999 0.997  0.999 0.998  0.999 0.998  
 RMSEA / SRMR 0.008 0.008  0.011 0.010  0.011 0.009  0.008 0.007  0.008 0.006  
 AIC / BIC 403014 403283  413366 413635  404939 405208  414353 414622  409435 409704  
 χ² Difference Test (diffdf) p 0.398 (2) 0.820 0.214 (2) 0.899 6.887 (2) 0.032* 2.974 (2) 0.226 0.452 (2) 0.501 

Note. P = personality; LA = leisure activity; SE = standard errors; Corr. change = within-person correlated change; CFI = comparative fit index; TLI = Tucker-Lewis index; RMSEA = root mean square error of approximation; SRMR = standardized root mean square residual; AIC = Akaike information criterion; BIC = Bayes information criterion; associations are coded to match paths in Figure 1. All variables were standardized to have a mean of zero and a standard deviation of one. Significant parameters and chi-square differences are bold. *p <.05, **p< .01, ***p<.001

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