A More Equal World?: Trends in Global Inequality, 2000 to 2020 Available to Purchase

Global income inequality declined between 2000 and 2020, but the forces driving this process may be winding down, leaving the world with very high inequality. China’s rapid growth has been one of the main forces driving the downward trend, but it will have the opposite effect once incomes in the country exceed a certain level. I calculate this level for different measures of inequality, and identify which parts of the Chinese distribution have exceeded these thresholds. I find that China’s growth is already contributing to inequality for some measures, such as Theil-L, and project that it will contribute to an increase in all inequality measures in the coming years. Projections for 2020 to 2040 show that this process will have a major impact on the trajectory of global inequality. If the growth rates of 2000 to 2020 continue, global inequality will start to rise as early as 2027. Global inequality will only continue to fall with faster income growth in Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia, while continued rapid growth in East Asia will have a disequalizing effect.