It is hard to foresee how a global emergency will end or what results it will have when we are still in the middle of its wreckage. What is clear is that the COVID-19 pandemic will exert a terrible cost in terms of human lives and suffering, and that our original estimates of the scale of the destruction were wildly inaccurate. It is very likely that we will have to revise these estimated losses upwards again several times as the year 2020 progresses and well into 2021. Eventually a safe vaccine will be developed and distributed, but before that happens, the world will have changed at a quicker pace than at any time since the end of the Cold War. While there will undoubtedly be some new trends coming out of the COVID crisis, there is...

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