While ocean acidification was first investigated as a global phenomenon, coastal acidification has received significant attention in recent years, as its impacts have been felt by different socio-economic sectors (e.g., high mortality of shellfish larvae in aquaculture farms). As a region that connects land and ocean, the Salish Sea (consisting of Puget Sound and the Straits of Juan de Fuca and Georgia) receives inputs from many different sources (rivers, wastewater treatment plants, industrial waste treatment facilities, etc.), making these coastal waters vulnerable to acidification. Moreover, the lowering of pH in the Northeast Pacific Ocean also affects the Salish Sea, as more acidic waters get transported into the bottom waters of the straits and estuaries. Here, we use a numerical ocean model of the Salish Sea to improve our understanding of the carbonate system in Puget Sound; in particular, we studied the sensitivity of carbonate variables (e.g., dissolved inorganic carbon, total alkalinity, pH, saturation state of aragonite) to ocean and freshwater inputs. The model is an updated version of our FVCOM-ICM framework, with new carbonate-system and sediment modules. Sensitivity experiments altering concentrations at the open boundaries and freshwater sources indicate that not only ocean conditions entering the Strait of Juan de Fuca, but also the dilution of carbonate variables by freshwater sources, are key drivers of the carbonate system in Puget Sound.

A pilot study of sampling, using monthly marine flights over spatially distributed stations, was conducted with the aim to characterize the carbonate system in Puget Sound over a full year-long period. Surface waters of Puget Sound were found to be under-saturated with respect to aragonite during October–March, and super-saturated during April–September. Highest pCO 2 and lowest pH occurred during the corrosive October–March period. Lowest pCO 2 and highest pH occurred during the super-saturated April–September period. The monthly variations in pCO 2 , pH, and aragonite saturation state closely followed the variations in monthly average chlorophyll a . Super-saturated conditions during April–September are likely strongly influenced by photosynthetic uptake of CO 2 during the phytoplankton growing season. The relationship between phytoplankton production, the carbonate system, and aragonite saturation state suggests that long-term trends in eutrophication processes may contribute to trends in ocean acidification in Puget Sound.

Information on ecosystem sensitivity to global change can help guide management decisions. Here, we characterize the sensitivity of the Puget Sound ecosystem to ocean acidification by estimating, at a number of taxonomic levels, the direct sensitivity of its species. We compare sensitivity estimates based on species mineralogy and on published literature from laboratory experiments and field studies. We generated information on the former by building a database of species in Puget Sound with mineralogy estimates for all CaCO 3 -forming species. For the latter, we relied on a recently developed database and meta-analysis on temperate species responses to increased CO 2 . In general, species sensitivity estimates based on the published literature suggest that calcifying species are more sensitive to increased CO 2 than non-calcifying species. However, this generalization is incomplete, as non-calcifying species also show direct sensitivity to high CO 2 conditions. We did not find a strong link between mineral solubility and the sensitivity of species survival to changes in carbonate chemistry, suggesting that, at coarse scales, mineralogy plays a lesser role to other physiological sensitivities. Summarizing species sensitivity at the family level resulted in higher sensitivity scalar scores than at the class level, suggesting that grouping results at the class level may overestimate species sensitivity. This result raises caution about the use of broad generalizations on species response to ocean acidification, particularly when developing summary information for specific locations. While we have much to learn about species response to ocean acidification and how to generalize ecosystem response, this study on Puget Sound suggests that detailed information on species performance under elevated carbon dioxide conditions, summarized at the lowest taxonomic level possible, is more valuable than information on species mineralogy.