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Camila Alvarez-Garreton
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Journal Articles
Elementa: Science of the Anthropocene (2019) 7: 2.
Published: 02 January 2019
Abstract
Since 1981, water allocation in Chile has been based on a water use rights (WURs) market, with limited regulatory and supervisory mechanisms. The volume to be granted as permanent and eventual WURs is calculated from streamflow records, if stream gauge data are available, or from hydrologic parameter transfer from gauged to ungauged catchments, usually with less than 50 years of record. To test the performance of this allocation system, while analyzing the long-term natural variability in water resources, we investigated a 400 year-long (1590–2015) tree-ring reconstruction of runoff and historical water rights for Perquilauquén at Quella catchment, a tributary to the Maule River in Central Chile (35°S–36°30S). Furthermore, we assess how the current legislation would perform under a projected climate scenario, based on historical climate simulations of runoff calibrated against observed data, and future projections. Our analyses indicate that the allocation methodology currently applied by the Water Authority in Chile is very sensitive to the time window of data used, which leads to an underestimation of variability and long-term trends. According to the WURs database provided by the Chilean Water Directorate, WURs at Perquilauquén at Quella are already over-allocated. Considering regional climate projections, this condition will be exacerbated in the future. Furthermore, serious problems regarding the access and quality of information on already-granted WURs and actual water usage have been diagnosed, which further encumber environmental strategies to deal with and adapt to climate change. We emphasize the urgent need for a review and revision of current water allocation methodologies and water law in Chile, which are not concordant with the dynamics and non-stationarity of hydrological processes. Water scarcity and water governance are two of the key issues to be faced by Chile in the Anthropocene.
Includes: Supplementary data
Journal Articles
Elementa: Science of the Anthropocene (2018) 6: 74.
Published: 07 December 2018
Abstract
The socio-ecological sensitivity to water deficits makes Chile highly vulnerable to global change. New evidence of a multi-decadal drying trend and the impacts of a persistent drought that since 2010 has affected several regions of the country, reinforce the need for clear diagnoses of the hydro-climate changes in Chile. Based on the analysis of long-term records (50+ years) of precipitation and streamflow, we confirm a tendency toward a dryer condition in central-southern Chile (30–48°S). We describe the geographical and seasonal character of this trend, as well as the associated large-scale circulation patterns. When a large ensemble of climate model simulations is contrasted to observations, anthropogenic forcing appears as the leading factor of precipitation change. In addition to a drying trend driven by greenhouse gas forcing in all seasons, our results indicate that the Antarctic stratospheric ozone depletion has played a major role in the summer rainfall decline. Although average model results agree well with the drying trend’s seasonal character, the observed change magnitude is two to three times larger than that simulated, indicating a potential underestimation of future projections for this region. Under present-day carbon emission rates, the drying pathway in Chile will likely prevail during the next decades, although the summer signal should weaken as a result of the gradual ozone layer recovery. The trends and scenarios shown here pose substantial stress on Chilean society and its institutions, and call for urgent action regarding adaptation measures.
Includes: Supplementary data