The latest political realignment in the Islamic Republic resulted in détente with the West even as regional upheaval has drawn Tehran into overextended military interventions. While Iran's future is uncertain, it is definitely not a hegemon in the making.

A dramatic shift of economic power has taken place—away from traditional private sector groupings and toward select religious foundations and Revolutionary Guards entities.

September 11 and subsequent developments have put to rest any idea that reforms will occur quickly in Iran or that relations will be restored with the United States.

If [Khatami] does not seize the moment and conservatives continue to resist change, Iranian citizens will become increasingly impatient: their questions already are no longer ‘Why reform?’ or ‘What kind of reform?’ They now urgently ask ‘How?’ and ‘When?’

Long-time watchers of Iranian politics [believe] Iran is moving away from the politics of Islamic revolution and toward the traditional politics of Iran. … [But] authoritarianism is a recurring theme in Iranian history, and some Iranian scholars openly wonder whether the reformists will be any less authoritarian than the conservative clerics.