For the opposition to win, the regime must become fairer and more democratic, the ruling party must split, and the opposition must remain united.

‘Socialism for the twenty-first century’ is looking more and more like political suicide in the making.

Cuba's democratic transition will be choppy because it will be led by groups not necessarily known to prefer democracy: the armed forces and expatriate businesspeople.

The press is full of diagnoses of the Argentine collapse. Most blame the Argentine political class. There is surely truth in this, and it is an opinion shared by millions of Argentines. But this drama has a larger, less easily personalized setting: tax evasion, the stubborn problem of Argentine exports, and global financial volatility.