The Russian military has failed the tests of the Ukraine war, and its leadership and chain of command are seriously compromised. A costly modernization program failed to deliver the promised superiority in key weapon systems, offensive capabilities are exhausted, and the quality of manpower has deteriorated. The ill-fated reliance on the Wagner Group was a result of this degradation. Nuclear weapons cannot be used to break the pattern of slow-moving defeat, and the resource base for sustaining the long war is being depleted. In the medium term, Russia cannot count on rehabilitating its capacity for threatening its neighbors.

You do not currently have access to this content.