Taking into account recently published evidence on Taiwan’s relations with the Soviet Union during the Cold War, this article examines the official and secret contacts between Moscow and Taipei from 1949 to 1988. It argues that despite some consideration given to a possible cooperation, Cold War hostility suited Taiwan and the Soviet Union more than collaboration. Taipei resorted to the ‘Soviet card’ in the 1970s to hinder Sino—American rapprochement, but never abandoned anti-Sovietism as the foundation of its diplomacy. The Soviet Union, for its part, prioritized normalization of relations with China and avoided rapprochement with the ROC, which could have only further strained ties with the PRC and accelerated the formation of the Sino—US united front against Moscow.

What alternatives are available to China in the next one or two decades? ‘More of the same’ is not a likely scenario, because one-party rule is not optimal for coping with the challenges of modernization and global interdependence. A second model, Singapore's authoritarian capitalism, appeals to many CCP leaders. But Singapore's scale and way of life are so different that its example cannot be very relevant to China. Nor does the Soviet imperial model fit, because China does not suffer from imperial overreach as did the USSR. The post-Soviet Russian model—a move from rigid hierarchy to free enterprise anarchy—could await China. Both countries have lacked institutions of civil society that could stabilize the country if central authority collapses. Another alterative would be a return to regionalism, spurred by economic and ethnic differences within China. Some PRC leaders hope to find a Chinese way that transcends other models, but this is not realistic. The most useful model for China and the world would be a gradual transition from authoritarianism to multi-party democracy, as has taken place in Taiwan. In one or two decades, China could edge in that direction. If so, animosities between the mainland and Taiwan would also diminish, removing a thorn from U.S.–Chinese relations. Opportunities for mutual gain may then overshadow present tensions.