This paper discusses the results of the survey conducted in co-operation with the European Research Center for Migration and Ethnic Relations, concerning identity in the Autonomous Republics of Russia and Ukraine. The survey queried 6522 residents of such republics as Bashkortostan, Karelia, Komi, Sakha (Yakutia), and Tatarstan in Russia, and Crimea in Ukraine. It examined the construction of social identities, common narratives regarding threats and deprivations, confidence in public institutions, the prevalence of views toward national minorities as ‘fifth columns’, ethnic stereotypes, ethnocentrism, and other conflict indicators. An early warning model, built on the basis of the results, measured the potential for conflict based on these factors, and found that it was most pronounced in Bashkortostan and Crimea, and to a lesser extent in Tatarstan. Conflict was less likely in Sakha, Karelia, and Komi, although there were still certain indicators that suggested potential problems, including moderate support for independence in these republics.

The paper aims to explore the interconnections between social identities (ethnic, national, regional and religious) and conflict intentions in Tajikistan. Based on the analysis of the dynamics of identity-based conflicts, the paper emphasizes the importance of an early warning system that centers on social identity and shows what impact such factors as national identity building, religious identity revival, and regional identity reinforcement have on processes of conflict prevention, resolution, and reconciliation. Through the examination of the components of the model, including such factors as intergroup prejudice, outgroup threat, identity salience, ingroup primacy, forms of social identity, and modes of identity meaning, the author shows the main threats to peaceful co-existence in Tajikistan.