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Łukasz Lach
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Journal Articles
Journal:
Communist and Post-Communist Studies
Communist and Post-Communist Studies (2018) 51 (4): 299–314.
Published: 09 November 2018
Abstract
This paper provides a first attempt in analyzing the role of Polish economy in the production structure of the global economy in the early years of the 21st century. For the purpose of this analysis, we propose a new approach in which two most important aspects of interindustry linkages in a global input-output model are examined. Contrary to previous studies focused on output-oriented key sector analyses in post-communist CEE economies, we focus on a fundamental policy target variable — income per gross output. In order to analyze the issues in question in a dynamic framework, the empirical results are based on the 2000 and 2014 global intercountry input-output tables for the 28 EU countries as well as 15 other major countries in the world.
Journal Articles
Journal:
Communist and Post-Communist Studies
Communist and Post-Communist Studies (2017) 50 (1): 65–76.
Published: 18 January 2017
Abstract
Using a modified dynamic IO model for Poland which allows taking into account actual trends observed in recently available statistical data we compare the rate of economic growth calculated for different growth paths resulting from the model. The goal of the research was to examine the distance between the actual structure of production and the structure on the turnpike and its impact on the economic growth of the economy under study. The results of the study indicate that the impact of structural change on output takes place in three general stages. The benefits of structural change do not outbalance the corresponding costs immediately, since it takes several periods until the growth rate of those paths which are closer to the von Neumann ray become larger than the corresponding growth rate of the benchmark growth path.
Journal Articles
Journal:
Communist and Post-Communist Studies
Communist and Post-Communist Studies (2015) 48 (1): 15–32.
Published: 22 January 2015
Abstract
This paper is the first study dedicated to the extensive examination of the dynamics of key sectors in CEE transition economies based on an application of the WIOD — an extensive database recently launched under the patronage of European Commission, Research Directorate General.We propose a modified approach to key sector analysis which extends applicability of the traditional methodology to the case of examining groups of countries over a period of time. More formally, the research was based on the maximum entropy decomposition of the Leontief inverse applied to the input—output tables covering the period 1995–2011. The results allow formulating the list of sectors, which, more or less, have preserved the status of the key sectors in CEE transition economies. In turn some sectors, especially the manufacturing ones, have significantly derailed while the sector of construction as well as the financial sphere and travel and tourism related sectors, have clearly gained in importance.
Journal Articles
Journal:
Communist and Post-Communist Studies
Communist and Post-Communist Studies (2013) 46 (2): 189–202.
Published: 24 April 2013
Abstract
This paper examines the nexus between political instability and economic growth in 10 CEE countries in transition in the period 1990–2009. Our results support the contention that political instability defined as a propensity for government change had a negative impact on growth. On the other hand, there was no causality in the opposite direction. A sensitivity analysis based on the application of a few hundred different variants of the initial econometric model confirmed the abovementioned findings only in the case where major government changes were applied to the definition of political instability.