Elite Narratives and State Response to Kazakhstan’s Qandy Qantar Protests

Weeks before Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Russian-led CSTO forces intervened in Kazakhstan’s January 2022 Qandy Qantar protests at the government’s request. Many observers predicted this intervention would deepen Kazakhstan’s dependence on Russia, leading to support for Moscow’s invasion. Yet Kazakhstan’s subsequent actions defied these expectations. This study examines how the Kazakhstani government strategically framed and managed domestic unrest within a shifting geopolitical context, from initially emphasizing foreign threats to justify CSTO intervention to later reframing reforms as necessary for protecting sovereignty amid global upheaval. Through analysis of evolving state narratives and policy decisions, we demonstrate how great power-centric analysis overlooks the sophisticated ways states navigate asymmetric relationships. This case illustrates the importance of examining how smaller states in asymmetric relationships strategically manage both domestic and international pressures to advance their interests.