In recent years, large-scale protests have forced several incumbent governments in former Soviet countries from power. Scholarly examinations of these events have lacked a cohesive explanation of the reasons for the success of certain movements and the failure of others. This study uses prior research on the dynamics of protest to formulate a game-theoretic model for why protest takes place and how its eventual outcome comes about. The model is tested through logistic regression analyses of monthly protest data. The statistical analysis shows that elections, prior protests and government transgressions increase the likelihood of anti-government protests.

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