... such as unemployment, inflation, and economic growth. Here, we test the accuracy of those forecasts (n = 16,559) and measure the degree to which they fall victim to overconfidence, both overoptimism and overprecision. We find forecasts are overly precise; forecasters report 53% confidence in the accuracy...

...) and undergraduate students ( N = 134) completed a classic contingency task, an overconfidence task, and measures of mental health constructs, including depression and anxiety. We measured perceived control throughout the contingency task, allowing us to compare control estimates at the trial-level to estimates...

...Don A. Moore; Amelia S. Dev; Ekaterina Y. Goncharova; Simine Vazire; Alexa Tullett Overconfidence is a robust cognitive bias with far-reaching implications, but prior research on cultural differences in overconfidence has been conflicting. We present two studies that measure the three forms...