This paper examines the question of the respective percentage of Arab, Jewish, and ‘other’ populations in historic Palestine and Israel using Israeli statistics as correlated to historical events. Analysis of actual percentages demonstrates that birth rates of both Arabs and Jews from 1948 in Palestine/Israel have been in decline, and that for territory in the pre-1967 area, there is no demographic ‘danger’ of Arabs – both Christian and Muslim populations – outnumbering Israelis on the basis of natural population growth. An important factor is also Jewish immigration which has been factored into the overall growth rate. The official growth rate for the Arab population has been skewed due to the 1967 influx (in which populations from the West Bank began to be counted as resident in Jerusalem) as well as the annexation of the Golan Heights and several thousand fugitives from the disbanded South Lebanon Army entering in 2000; if such aberrations are taken into account, it can be shown that the natural growth rate among the Arab population is entirely average and family size is in general decline. On the other hand, if the population of Arabs living in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip is added to the total, it can be seen that the ratio of Arabs to Jews in all of historic Palestine increased from 8:10 to 9:10 and can be reasonably expected to create a situation where the total number of Arabs will surpass the number of Jews in the next ten years.
Research Article| January 01 2010
Population growth and demographic balance between Arabs and Jews in Israel and historic Palestine
Contemporary Arab Affairs (2010) 3 (1): 71–82.
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Hussein Abu el Naml; Population growth and demographic balance between Arabs and Jews in Israel and historic Palestine. Contemporary Arab Affairs 1 January 2010; 3 (1): 71–82. doi: https://doi.org/10.1080/17550910903488490
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