This study examines the consequences of US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s 2022 Taiwan visit and China’s military response, using survey data from 2,027 respondents in Taiwan and 4,575 in Shanghai. The visit achieved its goals: assuring Taiwan’s public and creating a deterrent effect on China’s public. In response, China’s military exercises aimed to alleviate domestic concerns about US involvement (counter-deterrence) and to undermine Taiwan’s confidence in US assurances (counter-assurance). The exercises had a slight counter-assurance effect but no significant counter-deterrence. This study highlights the complex interplay between military and non-military strategies in the Taiwan Strait’s security environment and their roles in geopolitical stability.
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January/February 2025
Research Article|
December 24 2024
Deterrence, Assurance, and Countermeasures: Insights from Pelosi’s Taiwan Visit and Chinese Military Exercises
Xin-You Chen,
Xin-You Chen is a data analyst at the Institute of Sociology, Academia Sinica, Taiwan.
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Thung-Hong Lin,
Thung-Hong Lin
Thung-Hong Lin is a Professor at the Institute of Sociology, Academia Sinica, Taiwan.
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Chih-Jou Jay Chen
Chih-Jou Jay Chen
Chih-Jou Jay Chen is the Director and Professor at the Institute of Sociology, Academia Sinica, Taiwan.
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Asian Survey (2025) 65 (1): 131–159.
Citation
Xin-You Chen, Thung-Hong Lin, Chih-Jou Jay Chen; Deterrence, Assurance, and Countermeasures: Insights from Pelosi’s Taiwan Visit and Chinese Military Exercises. Asian Survey 1 February 2025; 65 (1): 131–159. doi: https://doi.org/10.1525/as.2024.2408270
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