China’s Belt and Road Initiative: Economic Development or Strategic Statecraft?

Is China using the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) to advance its economic development or to fulfill broader geopolitical objectives? While the BRI is often touted as a primarily economic venture aimed at addressing domestic overcapacity, this paper posits that political objectives are equally important. Drawing on selectorate theory, I assess whether China uses this initiative for political purposes. If so, it would be more likely to partner with authoritarian countries it sees as more amenable to political influence. Using logistic and Cox models to analyze data from 2013 to 2020, I find that political considerations are as relevant as economic ones. This research contributes to a more nuanced understanding of the BRI within global political and economic contexts and explains China’s international strategy.