What explains South Korean public opinion on nuclear weapons development? Despite the US security commitment, most South Koreans consistently support independent nuclear weapons development. To solve this puzzle, we investigate the mechanisms of security threat and security commitment under which individuals develop their opinion on nuclear proliferation. An original survey of 1,988 South Korean adults shows empirically supported correlates of South Korean public opinion on nuclear proliferation. Public support for proliferation is largely shaped by external security threats: nuclear threats from North Korea and China, but also the latent nuclear superiority of Japan. Public opposition to proliferation is fostered by the perceived credibility of the US security commitment, but not by its perceived effectiveness. The results provide insights into South Korean public opinion on nuclear proliferation and can inform the design of a nonproliferation policy tailored to South Korea.
Correlates of South Korean Public Opinion on Nuclear Proliferation
Man-Sung Yim is Professor in the Department of Nuclear and Quantum Engineering of the Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology. Email: <email@example.com>. We appreciate valuable feedback and discussion from three anonymous reviewers, as well as Jong Hee Park, Dong-Joon Jo, Scott Sagan, Benjamin Valentino, Lauren Sukin, Jiyoung Ko, Tongfi Kim, Haillie Na-Kyung Lee, Inwook Kim, Tae-Hyo Kim, Tae-Hyung Kim, Joonseok Yang, and audiences at the 2019 International Conference on Nuclear Nonproliferation.
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Sangyong Son, Man-Sung Yim; Correlates of South Korean Public Opinion on Nuclear Proliferation. Asian Survey 1 December 2021; 61 (6): 1028–1057. doi: https://doi.org/10.1525/as.2021.1429174
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